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2023
The promise of artificial intelligence. Societal dynamics of a key technology
Artificial intelligence is currently the subject of intense public debate. The technology involves major social changes, above all it is seen as the key to overcoming current economic and social challenges. Future development perspectives of artificial intelligence are worked out and the question of which interests and actors have determined its rapid development, especially in recent years, is pursued. What promises are made with the »promising technology« AI and can they be kept? It becomes clear: The new technology challenges the change of fundamental structures of the German industrial innovation system and stimulates a reorientation of the innovation policy.
Ever since it began in the 1950s, the development process of AI has been characterized by alternating boom and bust phases. Because the visions associated with the AI turned out to be exaggerated in some cases and the promises associated with it completely unrealistic. The disappointment of the big promises resulted in the departure of originally highly committed actors, the abandonment of further investments in AI development and a rapid waning of political and public interest. However, especially since the last decade, a renewed sustained acceleration of the AI dynamics and a rapidly increasing social interest in the AI topic is unmistakable.
The study starts with this history of development and from a technology and innovation sociological point of view the social determining factors of this dynamic are examined. The widespread view is that the AI dynamics are mainly determined by the available performance of the computer systems and the fundamentals and methods of the AI. From a social science perspective, however, such an exclusively IT and technology-centric justification falls short. Rather, the research shows instructively that the course and results of technological innovations must be understood as the results of social, economic and political decisions and influencing factors. This also applies without question to the development of AI, especially to its current boom.
he thesis is that AI is associated with a "technology promise" that arouses interest among many actors, causes far-reaching future expectations in the public and ultimately leads to high investments and diverse innovation policy support measures. Based on this, the analysis focuses on the concrete course of the dynamics and the future prospects of AI, on the associated challenges for innovation processes and innovation policy and on the mechanisms of action and the rhetoric of the technology promise itself. These questions are dealt with in the present Study with the main focus on German AI development followed up empirically.